Enhancing NBA True Shot Charts: A Probabilistic Spatial Approach to Rebounding and Possession Value

Research Paper will be posted in the coming weeks. Check back soon!
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Authors

Stephanos, Dembe

Abstract

It’s the last five seconds of regulation, and your team trails by one point, but the ball is in your hands. Tick, tick. The defense is physical and smothering. Tick. You pull up for the game winning shot. Tick. Ball hits back rim and bounces out... BEEP! What happens next? Hopefully your big got the putback, otherwise, time to pray to the refs for a foul. Everything comes down to Plan B. Traditional shot charts, which focus solely on made baskets, fail to capture these crucial dynamics.